Trump&x27s stock market: A wild four years | Reuters
(reuters) – the trump rally, a trade war and then a crippling pandemic: the four years since president donald trump’s election victory in 2016 have been a period like no other for us. uu. stock market.
hours after trump’s unexpected victory on November 1. on january 8, 2016, expectations of massive tax cuts and financial deregulation sparked a stock market rally that saw the s&p 500 .spx rise 5% in one month. wall street continued its rise through a trade war and impeachment, hitting new all-time highs following a deep plunge caused by the coronavirus pandemic that continues to cripple the global economy.
graphic: trump timeline
The Republican president took credit for the increase, tweeting more than 150 times about the stock market since he was elected, often when stocks were rising.
graphic: trump tweets while climbing the wall
despite recent volatility, the stock market has rallied strongly under trump, with the s&p 500 up more than 50% since the november 2016 election, more than in the four years since the first electoral victory of democrat barack obama in 2008.
The tech sector is up more than 150% since November. on January 8, 2016, by far the best performer during that time, while the energy sector, which Trump has championed, has lost more than half its value. In the four years after Obama’s victory in 2008, consumer discretionary led, rising 103%, while financials fell 2%.
chart: s&p 500 sectors in early terms: trump vs obama
the s&p 500’s performance since trump’s election in 2016 has also been above the average for presidents since the 1980s. overall, the strongest stock market performance since the 1980s was under the Democratic President Bill Clinton, while the weakest was under Republican President George W. bush. however, the performance of the stock market over the last four decades does not reflect any obvious benefit of Republican presidents over Democratic ones.
graphic: usa. uu. actions under different presidents
While the trump presidency has been a wild ride for investors, other presidential terms have seen greater volatility. Stock market volatility since the early 1980s peaked during the four years after Obama’s first victory, before leveling off in his second four years. moderately raised again under trump.
For those looking for stronger earnings in the future, a trump win can be a favorable outcome. suggesting that investors favor the certainty of presidents they are already familiar with, the s&p 500 since 1950 has risen on average 9.6% in the year after presidents were re-elected, compared to an average rise 4.8% in the year after re-election. election of new presidents, according to financial lpl.
s&p 500 performance could predict the next president.
since 1944, incumbent presidents or incumbent party presidents have won elections 82% of the time when the s&p 500 index was positive in the three calendar months before election day, according to sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA in New York. the s&p 500 is up less than 1% since july 31, and that historical pattern hardly favors trump winning the next vote.
however, with the coronavirus pandemic, the economy on a standstill, and discussions of pandemic relief front and center on wall street, the s&p 500’s recent gains may be a less accurate reflection of market sentiment. investors on the outcome of the elections this time. The S&P 500 fell more than 3% on Wednesday, with investors blaming a global surge in coronavirus cases.
“If the market focus is on recovering from Covid, then that may take precedence over holding the current administration,” Stovall said.
chart: stock market swings under different presidents